NBA best bets: Magic vs. Cavaliers Game 7 prediction, odds, pick for Sunday 5/5

Magic vs. Cavaliers Odds

Sunday, May 5, 1 p.m. ET, ABC

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Orlando Magic

Gary Harris is questionable — that's the only player on the injury list for Orlando.

The most promising thing for Orlando is that as the series has gone on, they've actually gotten better defensively and haven't just needed shooting. The Magic shot 47.2% in their Game 3 win on jump shots, 40.1% in Game 4. Then in Game 6 with their backs against the wall and facing elimination, they shot just 30.4% and still won. They shot 38.6% in Game 5 in Cleveland.

Those numbers are, quite frankly, horrific, but they're promising because the Magic need to be able to win a Game 7 without hitting jump shots. Game 7's are about shot variance and one team making a few more. The Cavs only shot 32% on jump shots in Game 6, a win on the margins. That shows the series is tilting toward Orlando.

Orlando has a +18.6 net rating since the first two games of the series. "Yes, the Magic have played better in their three wins than two of their three losses" is not revelatory. But the fact that the Cavaliers did not blow out the Magic in Game 5 and the Magic ran away at the end of Game 6 matters.

The Magic have more points off turnovers, more second-chance points and they are even in fastbreak points. Orlando has drawn more fouls, turned the ball over less, and rebounded better. Orlando has had the better coach. Orlando has had the second- and third-best players in this series (Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner) and I'd lean toward Jalen Suggs and Wendell Carter Jr. as the fourth and fifth as well as the Cavaliers have shrunk away.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Jarrett Allen is questionable and the Cavaliers desperately need him to play. Dean Wade is out, and man, could the Cavs use him.

For Cleveland, I'll be honest: This series is already a failure. They needed to be able to show they could outclass a young, inexperienced Magic team with a really bad offense. They needed to put the hammer down and show they had a higher gear. Instead, they were stomped in all three games in Orlando, requiring a Game 7 against a team that is truly just happy to be there.

It should not have come to this, and the fact that it has signals they have zero shot vs. the Celtics in the next round even if they win this one.

But win it they still must.

Donovan Mitchell has been the best player. He doesn't have to be the best player Sunday for the Cavs to win; Game 7's are notoriously funky and weird. For as bad as the Cavs' offense has been, Orlando's has been worse (by a small amount). The Cavaliers have more shooters, and they only need one or two to hit some. Darius Garland,  Georges Niang, Max Strus and Caris LeVert — those are guys who can hit two 3s and that can be enough in a game like this.

How about all the trends? Since 2003:

• Home teams for Game 7 in the first round after losing Game 6 on the road: 14-2 straight up, 9-7 ATS.
• 4-seeds at home in Game 7, round one: 6-3 straight up, 4-5 ATS.
• 4-seeds at home for Game 7 overall: 8-3 straight up, 6-5 ATS.
• Round one favorites at home when favored by more than two points: 22-6 SU, 16-12 ATS.
• Home teams that win Game 7 at home in round one are 17-6 ATS (74%).

It's just really hard for teams to win on the road in Game 7's. It's even more difficult for a team this young.

That said, the Cavaliers don't exactly inspire confidence with how rattled their entire non-Mitchell roster seems to get.

Magic vs. Cavaliers

Betting Pick & Prediction

Typically, playing Game 7 Under is an autoplay, 42-24 since 2003. But in round one, they're just 15-15. How about extremely low totals, sub-200? 11-11. Since 2014-15 when the league started going 3-crazy? 3-2, so a little over, but not by much. How about team totals? 15-15 on home team team totals, 14-16 on road team team totals.

So all the value is just not there, even with how much of a grind this series has been. And it has been a grind, an eyesore, a basketball root canal.

Here's another trend: The home team has lead at half in 22 of 30 home Game 7's in round one.

Home teams win these games. In those 16 games when the home team lost Game 6 on the road, they won the first half in 12 of 16, and have won the game in all 12 of those games.

This is a different game and you don't want to rely too heavily on trends. But ultimately, the Magic are 0-3 in Cleveland, and this is an impossibly tough spot.

If you want to hedge, there's a small arbitrage here by taking the Cavaliers to win the first half and the game at +110, then with the Magic on the moneyline at +140.

But if there's one bet to make, it's Cavs first half, Cavs full game at +110. This is a tough matchup and a tough game. But the Cavs most likely win, and history doesn't love laying the points. So I'll play them to lead at half and get the win as Orlando loads up for the offseason.

One prop play: Wendell Carter Jr. has taken over the starting spot and has gone over his rebounds and assists line in the last two. The Cavaliers play two at the level and WCJ is way more comfortable playing downhill. If Allen doesn't play, WCJ over 8.5 rebounds and assists is a great play.

Pick: Cavaliers 1H/Full Game +110 (FanDuel or DraftKings) | Wendell Carter Jr. Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists