The Diamondbacks' Season is on the Brink of Disaster

A familiar refrain for teams that get off to a slow start in the 162 game baseball season is "It's early, it's a long season". In one sense that is true. The Diamondbacks have played just 34 games and still have 128 left to play. But with a 14-20 record they've already put themselves on the brink of being unable to recover and get back to the Postseason in 2024.

After the debacle of last night's 13-1 drubbing at the hands of the Padres, the D-backs appear to be a team in free fall with no way out. They're 2-7 in their last nine games and have been outscored 55-15. They've been out hit .257 to .193 and out homered 13-4.

Last night Torey Lovullo acknowledged how dire the situation is. "It's obvious right now that we are grinding, things aren't going well, and we just aren't getting the job done."

It's been a stunning development for a team that went all the way to the World Series in 2023 and then invested in a franchise record high payroll. But a combination of injuries, multiple losses early on in close games they should have won, a perenially poor bullpen, and more recently the total disappearance of the offense has led to a start few would have envisioned.

So just how much damage has been done to their chances to get back to the Postseason? The first place to look to try to answer that question is history and precedent. Since the beginning of the Wild Card era in 1995 through 2023 there have been 201 teams to start their season with 14 or fewer wins and still made the Postseason. That comes out just 4.5%.

The current era is not quite the same as the earliest years with the Wild Card system in place, as now there are three Wild Card slots in each league. Last year the D-backs captured the final seed by going 84-78. One might look at the current National League standings and see the D-backs just three games behind the 18-18 Padres.

The problem with that is there are seven teams between the D-backs and the final playoff spot at the moment. The traditional way of looking at "games back" does not reflect the true diffiulty of the task to make up the ground. One way to view it is using the sum of games back of all teams in front of them. The D-backs Games Back Sum is currently 14. That is not a familiar or comfortable way for most to view the standings however.

So what is the best way to view the D-backs playoff odds at this point? The historical precedent doesn't quite capture the current dynamics of the third Wild Card. The Games Back Sum makes it seem almost impossible.

The D-backs are not flatlined just yet. The best way to view it is to look at the composite remaining win projections and Post Season Odds presented by the major stat sites. That includes Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. The current composite projection gives the D-backs an 18.6% chance to make the postseason and a median projection of 78.6 Wins.

Note this doesn't mean that there is a 18.6% chance to make the Postseason with 78.6 wins. It means that when simulating the rest of season based on the rest of season projections that the D-backs have roughly a one in five chance to improve enough to make the postseason. So they're not flatlined just yet.

The Path Forward

The Diamondbacks are struggling in all facets of the game. But here are the things that need to happen over the next 10 games in order to get back on track and back in the pennant race.

1.) Corbin Carroll needs to get going. Currently batting .194/.291/.242, .533 OPS with just one home run, no player's performance has had a bigger negative effect on the team's playoff chances. Simply put he is the engine of the offense, the heartbeat. Nowhere is the gap between expectation and reality greater for this team.

With him struggling this badly, resulting in him being dropped down to 7th and 8th in the order recently, the offense has been adrift. Carroll has shown signs of coming out of it with some harder struck balls. Last night he said that he allowed his swing plane to get too flat, and he's close to correcting his attack angle. His turnaround can't come quickly enough.

2.) Get Healthy in the Bullpen: Paul Sewald is due to return from the injured list this Tuesday in Cincinnati. If he is able to effectively close out games, that will push Kevin Ginkel to the 8th inning and Ryan Thompson to the seventh. After giving up eight runs last night the D-backs' current bullpen ERA stands at 4.71, 23rd in the league. The team is hoping Sewald's return can have a similar effect as his arrival did last August at the trade deadline.

3.) More consistent starting pitching. The starts have been alternately good and bad. Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly are not walking through the door any time soon. Both are on the 60-day IL with no timetable to resume throwing, let alone return. It's up to Zac Gallen and Jordan Montgomery to lead the rotation and young pitchers Brandon Pfaadt, Slade Cecconi, and Ryne Nelson to keep them in games.

4.) Stop making base running mistakes! Base running has been this team's calling card over the last several years, but in 2024 that's not been the case. They rank 23rd in MLB with just 16 stolen bases, and have been caught seven times, for a poor 70% success rate. They've also been picked off four times and have seven outs on base. Their overall Baserunning score is 0, or middle of the pack in MLB.

These are not the only areas that need improvement, but they are the most critical and impactful at this stage.

With so many wide-spread breakdowns in all facets of the game the D-backs don't look anything like a team that is capable of ripping off a long win streak at the moment. That's going to have to come sooner rather than later however if they are going to get back in this. It's later than you think.